Goals for this Deployment

Can't let almost a year go by and have nothing accomplished. Here is a list, in no particular order, of things I want to do/have before I come back to the states.

1. Be physically fit:
a. 300+ PT score
b. Be able to bench 250lbs+
c. Have less then 12% body fat

2. Have a good understanding of the Spanish language and be able to carry on a conversation at an elementary level.

3. Have a 6 digit trading account. High 5 digits will be satisfactory, and no, I'm not counting right of the decimal.

4. Developing...

Stimulus for Illegal Aliens and Foreign Workers

Much to my chagrin this could be a real possibility.

The 12 banks now receiving the biggest rescue packages, totaling more than $150 billion, requested visas for more than 21,800 foreign workers over the past six years for positions that included senior vice presidents, corporate lawyers, junior investment analysts and human-resources specialists. The average annual salary for those jobs was $90,721, nearly twice the median income for all American households.

Ok, now that looks really bad, but of the 21,800 visas requested an unknown number were granted, because that information is not disclosed. What we do know is that 85,000 work visas are granted each year for U.S. employers. Obviously there are benefits of hiring foreigners, a company can get the best and brightest the nation has to offer, and ideally you can pay them less. But at what expense is this to the American people?

During the last 3 months of 2008 the largest banks receiving stimulus funds laid off more than 100,000 workers. The claims number for unemployment benefits that came out Friday was 598,000, a 16 year high. So, the almighty stimulus plan is leaking jobs to foreigners while America is out of work.

Now, how are illegal aliens able to get part of the stimulus?

Senate Republicans say they have found a provision in the $819 billion economic stimulus bill that could allow illegal immigrants to receive tax rebates. In the version that passed the House Wednesday, eligible recipients would be allowed to use taxpayer identification numbers, which illegal aliens can obtain, instead of Social Security numbers, to identify themselves for the tax rebates.

Now, the bill also expressly says illegal aliens are not qualified to receive the funds but they are allowed to get TIDs through legal means, which in turn, would enable them to get stimulus funds.

None of the funds made available in this Act may be used to enter into a contract with an entity that does not participate in the E-verify program described in section 401(b) of the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996.

That’s comforting no? The E-verify program is going to have a massive influx of applicants, more then I think it can even handle. I don’t know the specifics of how it works nor do I really care, but if it works like other DHS applications, there might be a problem or two…

Future Home Prices

Congress, NAR, HOPE for Homeowners, TARP, and stimulus, everyone has a hand in the pot, so what will be the future outcome of the housing market?

Rates are incredibly low right now, approaching nil, and many people think we will have a refinance boom. Even though the majority of home owners did so in 02-04 and locked in when rates were near 1%. If you were one of the many unfortunate souls who bought a house from say 05-07, chances are, you are underwater. As of late real estate prices haven't caught the escalator like they did ever since, what the 50's?

Naturally, refi applications are going to sky rocket over the coming months. However, the only people who will make money off of this development are the appraisers much to the chagrin of all the homeowners and their "McMansions."

Most will probably get declined and in turn will lead to a whole new round of underwater mortgage owners turning in their keys to the banks. This will send home values getting marked down, across the board mind you, as the appraisers run around, delivering bad news.

My point is, from what I can deduce: The “refinance boom” is a fraud. Anyone promoting this fairy tale in a most egregious way, will be midget stomped. (I don't know, sounds frightening.)

In light of all this doom and gloom, here is the upside. I want the housing prices to decline until... let's say, early 2010. Then I will have myself positioned to buy, in anticipation of market lows, and in turn will be ready to ride that escalator, hopefully up.

Swing Trades

I really like the way I'm positioned for this week.

SRS at 50.32
JASO at 2.63
short KIM at 13.76
short CHK at 17.13


JASO is my long exposure and I'm heavily short REITs. Maybe a little too aggressive on the shorts but I have a little room for them to move before profits are getting hurt.

Bone Thugs N Harmony - Ghetto Cowboy

Holdings

SRS @ 50.39

JASO @ 2.63

I wanna hold these for a longer swing trade. They have been beaten down and I think there is a considerable amount of upside room here.

Pardon me

With the outgoing President here come the pardons. From just looking at the list it seems to be a good amount of pardons for narcotics. Not pardoned but communed, the most deserving was Ignacio Ramos and Jose Compean. Yes they committed a crime, but I believe their sentence was harshly overstated and unfair.

Wiki Link to List of Pardons

Number 86 on the list is hilarious,

"Jason Welge who was charged with conspiracy to endanger penguins in violation of the 1907 U.S. Penguin Ceasefire."

US Power Generation

This topic came up the other day, I’m not sure exactly how or why. The question proposed: What was the most prominent source of electrical power generation in the United States? Someone said nuclear power and I disagreed. I couldn't name the biggest source (I know Dad, I should know this) but I knew it was some sort of fuel that burned to turn a turbine.

I thought because coal was so bad for the environment that it would not account for 50% of generation. Surprise surprise. A diagram of electrical generation output:



Is that diagram about right? What do you see as being the biggest source in the decades to come?

Bloc Party - Talons

Obamarama!

My trading account has prospered from this roller coaster of a week. I was net short so during Thursday's big fall I was able to capitalize on that. Among my purchases were:

SRS @ 61.50, out at 67.40
EEV @ 56.10, out at 61.25
FAZ @ 52 out at 62

These inverse ETFs have been bery bery good to me in 2009. 10% MTD.
As far as my 2008 trading records, what a mess. F*$#@ oil companies and Cramer...

That is all.

Gran Torino

The new Clint Eastwood movie looks great.



In other news...

Classic.

Trabajo?

2.5 million, 3 million, no... 4.1 MILLION JOBS!



"Estimates are subject to significant margins of error — because of the assumptions that went into the economic models and because it is not known what might pass Congress."

Of the $775 billion plan, if it "created" 4.1 million jobs then each job made would cost $189,024. Is that minimum wage these days?

Good quote I saw this morning:

For the uninitiated, the moral of the story is simply this: Politicians invariably respond to crises — that in most cases they themselves created — by spawning new government programs, laws and regulations. These, in turn, generate more havoc and poverty, which inspires the politicians to create more programs . . . and the downward spiral repeats itself until the productive sectors of the economy collapse under the collective weight of taxes and other burdens imposed in the name of fairness, equality and do-goodism.

Down the rabbit hole we go!

1st trading week of the year

Activity for the month so far...

Bought 200 AKAM at 16.45 stopped out at 15.48. (-216)

Short 100 NOV at 29.54 covered at 28.92 (+41)

Bought 200 LDK at 13.31 sold at 16.30 (+578)

Short 200 M at 10.68 stopped out at 11.38 (-161)

With "Barrack the Builder" being pro renewable energy it seemed only logical to pick a solar. Luckily for me, LDK outperformed all the others by a long shot.

Shorting M didn't seem like a horrible idea. Walmart's bad report plus Macy's store closings made me want to go short. With a little conviction and cojones of steel I could have came ahead because M is printing 10.30 as of the close.

2% month to date. I'll take it.